OUR INDEXATION
METHODOLOGY
Fair Coal Indexation Methodology: Preventing Gaming Through Exclusion
In an effort to ensure the integrity and accuracy of coal price indices, it’s crucial SCR developed a robust methodology that mitigates the potential for manipulation or gaming by market participants.
SCR’s coal indexation methodology is based on Peter Sceats’ much copied “IndeXatoR” approach shared with the coal trade press in 2000 thru 2003.
SCR aims to address such concerns by excluding the highest and lowest bids, mids, trades or offers from the survey data, thereby fostering transparency and reliability in price assessments.
Data Collection:
• SCR conducts weekly data collection exercises to gather bids, mids, trades and offers and their associated volumes from market participants across relevant coal markets.
• SCR ensure a diverse pool of contributors, including coal producers, traders, consumers, and other stakeholders, to reflect a comprehensive representation of market dynamics but does not feel it necessary to name panel members or give this or that company special mention to make the newsletter look “connected”.
Calculation:
• SCR calculate the index based on the remaining bids, mids, trades or offers after the exclusion of outliers.
• Utilize a suitable mathematical formula, such as a weighted average and median, to compute the index value.
Benefits:
• Mitigates Gaming: By excluding the highest and lowest bids, mids, trades or offers, the methodology reduces the potential for manipulation or gaming by market participants seeking to influence the index.
• Enhances Transparency: The transparent exclusion criteria and index calculation process promote transparency and trust among stakeholders, ensuring the credibility of the index.
• Improves Accuracy: By focusing on the majority of submissions and excluding outliers, the methodology improves the accuracy and reliability of coal price assessments, providing stakeholders with more actionable market intelligence.
• Indices where the final arbiter is a journalist paid through subscription earnings are not ideal.
• Indices drawn from a producer inspired trading portal are even less ideal.
• SCR coal prices are not from a Black Box, no subscriber, conference sponsor, monied producer or commodity adept trader has any influence with us whatsoever.
Exclusion:
• First and foremost, SCR will specifically exclude all trades made on any trading platform where the beneficial owners have a specific directional interest in the coal price. Unless trades on such platforms can be publicly scrutinised, it is impossible to confirm they were not conducted by the shareholders themselves (or their proxies) who benefit from higher or lower coal prices, as the case may be. Similarly excluded are coal price assessments from other coal trade journals whose own price assessments typically incorporate coal price data from such trading platforms.
• SCR excludes the highest and lowest bids, mids, trades, or offers from each survey response before calculating the index.
• The exclusion criteria apply independently to each bid, mid, trade or offer submitted by participants, whoever they are.
• This exclusion mechanism prevents outliers from unduly influencing the index calculation while retaining the integrity of the majority of submissions.
Transparency and Reporting:
• Maintain transparency in the index calculation process by disclosing the methodology used, including the criteria for bid/mid/trade/offer exclusion.
• Provide clear explanations of any adjustments or factors considered in the index calculation to enhance understanding and trust among stakeholders.
• Publish weekly reports or updates detailing the index values, trends, and contributing factors, along with insights into market dynamics and developments.
Conclusion:
This proposed coal indexation methodology, incorporating the exclusion of extreme bids, mids, trades or offers, offers a robust framework for preventing gaming and enhancing the reliability of price indices. By fostering transparency, accuracy, and integrity, this methodology strengthens confidence in coal market assessments and supports informed decision-making by industry participants.